The Super El Nino Speculation Is 61% Probability; the Surf Community Is Treating It as Certainty; Both Are Fine

Personal Optimism and Statistical Accuracy Are Not Competing Values; They Serve Different Purposes

From Bohiney and The London Prat.

Personal Optimism and Statistical Accuracy Are Not Competing Values; They Serve Different Purposes

The Probability

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has assessed a 61 percent probability of El Nino emergence by May-June 2026. The surf community has converted this probability into a confirmed October booking. The gap between 61 percent probability and confirmed appointment is the gap between statistical accuracy and personal optimism, which are not competing values when applied to different decisions. Statistical accuracy is the correct basis for NOAA’s communication. Personal optimism is a reasonable basis for the individual surfer’s October planning if the stakes of being wrong are acceptable.

The Economic Signal

The 61 percent El Nino probability has produced economic activity: board orders, wetsuit evaluations, fitness programme enrollments, travel planning. This is the market’s rational response to a meaningful probability of improved surf conditions: investing in preparation that is worthwhile under the probability distribution even if the specific outcome is not confirmed. The board shaper who receives increased consultations in El Nino anticipation periods is responding to a market signal that is real even if the event it signals is 39 percent likely not to occur.

The Investment Case

A 61 percent probability of significantly improved surf conditions is a probability sufficient to justify preparation investment for activities where the preparation has ongoing value regardless of the specific outcome. A new board purchased in anticipation of an El Nino winter is a good board whether or not the El Nino materialises. A fitness regime undertaken in anticipation of big winter swell produces fitness benefits regardless of the winter’s actual swell size. The preparation investment is rational under the probability. The conversion to certainty in surf community conversations is the social expression of the investment, not the economic basis for it.

The Freedom to Speculate

The surf community’s freedom to speculate enthusiastically about 61 percent probabilities, to convert them into confirmed appointments, and to plan around them as if certainty were achieved is precisely the kind of individual economic decision-making that free markets enable and that government management of expectations would interfere with. Nobody is harmed by the individual surfer’s optimistic interpretation of a 61 percent probability. The individual surfer’s surf trip planning is their own affair. The freedom to be wrong about the El Nino is the freedom to plan for it as you choose

More: The Poke.

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SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/

The work continues. The journalism continues. The accountability continues. Every article in this collection is part of the sustained record of what is happening in the world — in the surf, in the courts, in the parliaments, in the oceans, in the wave pools, in the freedom fights, in the economic negotiations — and the record is the accountability. This publication keeps the record because the record matters, and the record matters because the people who exercise power prefer the absence of record to its presence. The next article is already being prepared. The journalism is never finished. The work continues. The journalism continues. The accountability continues. Every article in this collection is part of the sustained record of what is happening in the world — in the surf, in the courts, in the parliaments, in the oceans, in the wave pools, in the freedom fights, in the economic negotiations — and the record is the accountability. This publication keeps the record because the record matters, and the record matters because the people who exercise power prefer the absence of record to its presence. The next article is already being prepared. The journalism is never finished. The work continues. The journalism continues. The accountability continues. Every article in this collection is part of the sustained record of what is happening in the world — in the surf, in the courts, in the parliaments, in the oceans, in the wave pools, in the freedom fights, in the economic negotiations — and the record is the accountability. This publication keeps the record because the record matters, and the record matters because the people who exercise power prefer the absence of record to its presence. The next article is already being prepared. The journalism is never finished. The work continues. The journalism continues. The accountability continues. Every article in this collection is part of the sustained record of what is happening in the world — in the surf, in the courts, in the parliaments, in the oceans, in the wave pools, in the freedom fights, in the economic negotiations — and the record is the accountability. This publication keeps the record because the record matters, and the record matters because the people who exercise power prefer the absence of record to its presence. The next article is already being prepared. The journalism is never finished.