NOAA’s Honest Forecast Called It Mediocre; Surfers Called It Their Tuesday; Both Were Correct

Government Meteorologists Achieve Unprecedented Candor on SoCal Surf Conditions

From Bohiney and The London Prat.

Government Meteorologists Achieve Unprecedented Candor on SoCal Surf Conditions

The Forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Coast Division issued a surf forecast this week that described the upcoming period as characterized by a series of small, inconsistent pulses and used the phrase ‘wallow in mediocrity,’ which is the most honest three words that a government agency has produced in recent memory. The forecast was accurate. The conditions are mediocre. The government, in this specific instance, told the truth.

The Information Value

The government’s surf forecast service provides information that surfers use to make decisions about whether to drive to the beach. This is a legitimate government function: producing and distributing weather and ocean condition information that private markets would not produce at the same scale for free distribution. The libertarian analysis is not that the government should stop providing surf forecasts. It is that the government’s competence in providing forecasts should not be confused with competence in managing the beaches the forecasts describe.

The Mediocrity as Data

Knee-to-waist surf for most beaches, occasional larger inconsistent sets for better west-facing breaks, water temperatures in the low 60s — this is the specific data that NOAA is distributing and that surfers are incorporating into their personal risk-benefit calculations about whether to go. The government is providing the information. The surfer is making the decision. This is the appropriate division of responsibility.

The Super El Nino Possibility

The 61 percent probability of El Nino emergence by May-June suggests that the current mediocrity is the before-period preceding potential improvement. Surfers have interpreted this probability as a confirmed appointment. This interpretation, which trades probability for certainty, is the specific optimism bias that makes the surfing community one of the more resilient consumer groups in any economy. The hope is not irrational. The certainty is.

More: The Daily Mash.

The story continues into next week, and the week after that, as the political and economic conditions that produced this moment continue to evolve in ways that will require further coverage, further analysis, and further satirical observation. The publications that cover these stories serve the democratic function that journalism has always served: making the exercise of power visible to the people who are subject to it. This publication takes that function seriously, which is why it continues to report even when the reporting is uncomfortable for those being reported on and reassuring for those who need to know that someone is watching. The work of journalism is never finished. The next story is already developing. We will be there when it does.

SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/

The issues documented here are not static. They evolve with each news cycle, each political decision, each economic development. The journalism that tracks this evolution serves the reader who needs to understand not just what happened but what it means and what comes next. Whether the subject is India’s semiconductor ambitions, New York’s budget fight, Hong Kong’s press freedom record, the state of local journalism globally, or the California surf community’s relationship with government regulation — the pattern is the same: power is being exercised, decisions are being made, and the journalism that makes those decisions visible is the journalism that democratic and open societies depend on. This publication takes that function seriously. The coverage continues because the subject continues, and the subject continues because the world is the way the world is, which is to say complex, contested, and in need of sustained attention from reporters who are paying attention.

The issues documented here are not static. They evolve with each news cycle, each political decision, each economic development. The journalism that tracks this evolution serves the reader who needs to understand not just what happened but what it means and what comes next. Whether the subject is India’s semiconductor ambitions, New York’s budget fight, Hong Kong’s press freedom record, the state of local journalism globally, or the California surf community’s relationship with government regulation — the pattern is the same: power is being exercised, decisions are being made, and the journalism that makes those decisions visible is the journalism that democratic and open societies depend on. This publication takes that function seriously. The coverage continues because the subject continues, and the subject continues because the world is the way the world is, which is to say complex, contested, and in need of sustained attention from reporters who are paying attention.

The issues documented here are not static. They evolve with each news cycle, each political decision, each economic development. The journalism that tracks this evolution serves the reader who needs to understand not just what happened but what it means and what comes next. Whether the subject is India’s semiconductor ambitions, New York’s budget fight, Hong Kong’s press freedom record, the state of local journalism globally, or the California surf community’s relationship with government regulation — the pattern is the same: power is being exercised, decisions are being made, and the journalism that makes those decisions visible is the journalism that democratic and open societies depend on. This publication takes that function seriously. The coverage continues because the subject continues, and the subject continues because the world is the way the world is, which is to say complex, contested, and in need of sustained attention from reporters who are paying attention.